[SMM Analysis: How Will Primary Lead Enterprises Plan Production in October Amid Strong Prices of Lead and By-Products Like Silver?]

SMM, September 30: In September 2025, China’s primary lead production increased slightly, up 0.94% MoM and 12.37% YoY. Cumulative primary lead output from January to September rose 8.68% YoY.
It is understood that production changes at primary lead smelters in September largely offset each other, resulting in a relatively small net change in output. Routine maintenance at lead smelters in Central and North China, as well as output reductions due to undersupply of lead concentrates, led to a decrease of over 10,000 mt. Meanwhile, production resumed at smelters in Central and Northeast China after maintenance. In addition, as lead prices fluctuated upward and broke through the 17,000 yuan/mt mark, and by-product silver prices repeatedly hit record highs, smelters in South China showed improved production enthusiasm, with some enterprises gradually increasing output, contributing an increase of over 10,000 mt. Overall, primary lead production registered only a minor increase.
Looking ahead to October, as Q4 begins, lead smelters will enter the traditional winter stockpiling period. Due to strong demand in the lead concentrate market this year, smelters began stockpiling lead ore as early as August. Coupled with silver prices repeatedly reaching new highs, negotiations for high-grade lead concentrates have become particularly difficult, and lead concentrate TCs have declined further, with some imported ore already quoted at -$170/dmt. Regarding production plans, medium and large smelters in Central and North China are expected to resume production after completing maintenance in September, which will contribute to a certain increase in output. As it is Q4, some enterprises also have plans to push for annual production and sales targets, especially amid rising prices of lead and by-products like silver, which further boosts production enthusiasm. Even though some medium and large enterprises plan maintenance in October, this will not reverse the upward trend in production for the month. Overall, SMM expects primary lead output in October to increase by about 2% MoM.

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